“When Governments Make Dreams Come True: The Political Effects of Homeownership” with Natália Bueno, Yale

ISPS EXPERIMENTS WORKSHOP

Abstract: Do voters reward incumbents for policies “that make dreams come true?” Studies of distributive politics assume that voters favor politicians in response to economic, material benefits. Consistent with that prediction, several studies find evidence that incumbents spend public resources and fashion social policy in the hopes of building and cultivating political support. However, we have mixed evidence whether and why voters respond to such spending by supporting the incumbent, to which incumbent they attribute responsibility, how enduring support may be, and what are the effects on overall political attitudes (such as support for redistribution). Furthermore, it is often difficult to empirically verify that social policies and public spending actually improve voters’ material welfare.

The analysis of the Brazilian program Minha Casa Minha Vida (“My Home, My Life”, MCMV) is an excellent opportunity to discuss the political and welfare consequences of a large and visible programmatic policy. The MCMV program is one of the largest government-run housing programs in the world. Lower-income voters sign up for this program and a lottery (administered by the mayor) selects program beneficiaries. Lottery winners are awarded the legal title to a home and a federal governmental program generously subsidizes the installments. We measure political attitudes and welfare outcomes over time to determine whether beneficiaries reward incumbents for the social program, effects on attitudes towards redistribution, and whether there is an association between changes in socioeconomic welfare with political attitudes.

Speaker: Natália Bueno joined the Ph.D. in Political Science at Yale University in 2011. Her research interests are comparative politics, political economy, and research methods.