Daniel E. Bergan, Alan S. Gerber, Donald P. Green, Costas Panagopoulos (2005). Grassroots Mobilization and Voter Turnout in 2004, Public Opinion Quarterly 69(5): 760–777, DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfi063.
Voter turnout increased sharply in 2004. At the same time, 2004 marked a change in campaign strategy, as both presidential campaigns and allied organizations placed unprecedented emphasis on voter mobilization. This article attempts to assess the degree to which grassroots mobilization efforts contributed to the surge in voter turnout. We conclude that although grassroots efforts generated millions of additional votes, they probably account for less than one-third of the observed increase in turnout. Increased turnout in 2004 primarily reflects the importance that voters accorded the presidential contest.
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