Peer Reviewed Article

A Regression Discontinuity Design Analysis of the Incumbency Advantage and Tenure in the U.S. House.

Author
  • Daniel M. Butler
Published
October 16, 2009
Publication
Electoral Studies
Discipline
Areas of Study
Geographic Areas
Document Control Number(s)
  • ISPS 09-008
Citation

Butler, Daniel M. (2009) “A Regression Discontinuity Design Analysis of the Incumbency Advantage and Tenure in the U.S. House.” Electoral Studies 28(1): 123-128.

Abstract

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to compare the incumbency advantage enjoyed by freshmen and non-freshmen incumbents. The results show that compared to freshmen incumbents that barely won the last election, non-freshmen incumbents that barely won get 2.3 percentage points more in the next election. Further results suggest that the ability to deter high quality challengers is an important source of that advantage.

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