“A Measure of Party Strength Based on Politicians’ Careers,” Rocío Titiunik, Princeton University
QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS WORKSHOP
Abstract: We propose a measure of party strength based on the trajectories of individual candidates. For any pair of elections, we estimate the probability of candidates switching between running for a given party and running for another party. By collecting these probabilities in a transition matrix, we construct measures at the individual party level based on linear combinations of matrix entries, allowing us to compare different parties within the same political system, and measures at the entire party system level based on matrix norms and linear combinations of matrix entries, allowing us to compare different party systems to each other. Our framework directly allows for formal hypothesis tests of over-time changes in strength within a party and cross-sectional differences in strength between parties and between party systems.
Rocío Titiunik is Professor of Politics at Princeton University, where she is also the Director of the Data-Driven Social Science Initiative, and an associated faculty with the School of Public and International Affairs. She specializes in quantitative methodology for the social and behavioral sciences, with emphasis on quasi-experimental methods for causal inference and program evaluation. Her research interests lie at the intersection of political economy, political science, statistics, and data science, particularly on the development and application of quantitative methods to the study of political institutions.
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