ISPS Working Paper on the Falling Crime Rates in Chicago

Andrew Papachristos, associate professor of sociology, law and public health at Yale, recently published an ISPS working paper, “48 Years of Crime in Chicago: A Descriptive Analysis of Serious Crime Trends from 1965 to 2013,” which shows a surprising trend: overall violent crime has been dropping in Chicago for almost five decades. The paper shows that last year Chicago ranked as the19th most dangerous city in the United States, a ranking comparable to Houston and Minneapolis. Papachristos notes, however, that although the crime rate has dropped in all parts of Chicago, for the more socially and economically disadvantaged neighborhoods, crime remains persistent and that gangs continue to play a role in the city’s homicides.

The paper garnered immediate attention from the press with stories running in the Chicago Sun Times and USA Today. U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder issued a press statement, saying: “These findings demonstrate that progress is being made in our efforts to make Chicago a safer place to live, to work, and to raise a family.”

The paper does not assign reasons for the drop in crime, but states that the “objective of this report is to simply document these historical trends and not to assign any casual interpretations of the vanguards of crime rates of this period.”

A native of Chicago, Papachristos’ research focuses on social networks and violence. Other recent work has focused on the social contagion of gun violence.

Area of study 
Criminal Justice