Eitan Hersh on 2016 General Election Battlegrounds

June 22, 2016

Eitan Hersh writes in FiveThirtyEight that the potential for competition in the 2016 general election is high and the electoral map many see as stable may be scrambled.

“Almost everywhere,” Hersh writes, “Democrats and Republicans can generate a close race.”

“Although recent presidential elections have featured a predictable set of swing states and safe states, the extraordinary unpopularity of both major candidates (especially Trump) might mean that voter enthusiasm — and therefore turnout — might be different from that of past years. Additionally, Trump is so unlike recent Republican nominees that the past few presidential election results might not be very predictive of his performance.”

The analysis is based on a working paper, co-autored with Bernard Fraga (Indiana University).

Read the article here.