FL, GA, MI, NV, OH, and PA
Our collection of precinct-level returns and voter files comes from six states that cover 30,000 precincts and tens of millions of votes cast. We chose the six states—Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—on the basis of multiple criteria. We emphasized states that were closely contested in 2012 and/or 2016, for which we could obtain the necessary voter files and precinct returns, and which provided some indication of party preference in the voter file through party registration or records of party primary participation.
Electoral change toward the GOP