Evaluating the Effect of Project Longevity on Group-Involved Shootings and Homicides in New Haven, CT

Beginning in November of 2012, New Haven, CT served as the pilot site for a statewide, focused deterrence gun violence reduction strategy named Project Longevity. Drawing on the group violence intervention (GVI) model pioneered in the 1990s as Boston Ceasefire, Longevity looked to reduce gun violence by focusing law enforcement, social services, and community members on members of violent street groups that are disproportionately involved in gun violence as victims and offenders. Using autoregressive integrated moving average models, we test for a programmatic effect of the Longevity intervention on group member involved (GMI) shootings and homicides. Controlling for the possibility of a non-New Haven specific decline in gun violence, a decrease in group offending patterns, and the limitations of police-defined GMI categorization of shootings and homicides, the results of our analysis show that Longevity is associated with a reduction of almost five GMI incidents per month. These findings bolster the growing body of research confirming the efficacy of focused deterrence approaches to reducing gun violence, and suggest the need for further research on similar initiatives across the varying contexts in which they are implemented.